A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
