Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
