War-torn Burma Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".